D9HW4 Outline

I. Introduction

II. Two Basic Possibilities

1. Military Conflict

A. Likely Causes
- Hard Evidence of Iranian Foul play
• Specifically either evidence of nuclear weapons development or evidence linking top Iranian officials to support of terrorist groups in Iraq and else ware
• Hard evidence would give U.S. ability to muster U.N. and other support
- Lack of communication allows situation to deteriorate
• Currently U.S. and many other nations are largely refusing to meet with Iranian officials until they suspend uranium enrichment.
• Both sides getting more and more fed up with each other will eventually lead to conflict. No talking= conflict.
- Small scale strikes spiral out of control
• Troop buildup occurring in Persian Gulf preparing for possible military strikes. Same is happening on Iranian side
• Iran states they will return any aggression
• If punches start flying things will get out of hand and the region will be drawn into conflict

B. Likely Occurrences
- U.N. and Arabic Nations will likely stay largely out of conflict unless evidence of severe hard play
• GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) wary of Iran but warier of joining a conflict which could destabilize the region. In the event of conflict will likely hunker down and hold on for the ride.
• U.N., while more united than usual, still suffers from splits on this issue primarily due to Russia and China’s close economic ties to Iran. U.N. military operations have rarely worked out well.
- Primary reliance on U.S. troops and resources
• Without large-scale assistance from U.N. or other Arabic states the conflict will likely rely on U.S. with perhaps some assistance from coalition and possibly EU or NATO.
• If just a brief conflict could be fine but if turns into longer, larger scale situation like Iraq it will cause problems
- Stretching of U.S. resources
• Still bogged down in Iraq and economy is already suffering. Similar situation in Iran could overstretch our resources.
• Likely large bulk of military would have to be put on deployment until conflict resolved. (Could be years)
• Could result in a draft

- Influx of Insurgents into Iran
• Many middle of the road persons drawn into extremism by massive western based conflict
• Iranian military, specifically Basij and IRGC, geared to fight an insurgency

C. Likely Outcomes
- Both Iraq and Iran Operations likely unsuccessful. Mass pullout. Situation much like Vietnam. All following consequences.
• List various consequences
• Overstretching of military forces and general resources would add up and result in the U.S. pulling out. All other coalition forces would follow.
• Vietnam
- Would result in massively reinforced and funded extremists now free to focus on West.
• Lots of pissed off and angry Arabs, with all their experience, newfound numbers and backing
• Though many would likely be caught up in following struggle many would be available to refocus attacks in Europe and U.S.
- Region likely destabilized.
• Withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces will leave power vacuums, which could result in bloody conflicts.
• Would result in chaos in which terrorism would thrive

D. Important to note
• Possible that coalition occupation in Iran could be shorter and more efficient due to lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan
• This is situation as is. Thousand different things.

2. Requirements for Peace

- Open communications and keep them open
• The key to peaceful resolution is open, meaningful talks backed by a threat of violence
• Lack of communication was disastrous in Iraq and would repeat with Iran
• Current situation getting nasty because two sides aren’t talking
- Better border operations
• Sincere joint effort by both governments to secure Iranian border and crack down on weapons
• Stepped up operations to counter Iranian support for insurgencies
- Increased Cooperation
• The Iranian and U.S./Coalition Governments need to work closely to resolve issues
- Sincere effort on both sides to resolve outstanding issues could do wonders
- No observed effort on either side will result in increased perceived conviction of guilt
• Iran isn’t doing something behind our back. If they are it must stop.
- Any hard evidence of Iranian guilt in the areas of nuclear proliferation or insurgent support operations will make everything a new ball game.
- If evidence is found and Iran doesn’t immediately cease said operations then military conflict is pretty much assured.

III. What we need to be doing now.

- Repeat keep communications open
- Stepped Intel operations
• This is almost certainly already being done
• Many difficulties with getting good intel on Iran
• Open communications would likely make intel gathering easier
- Gather resources/allies
• It is critical to be prepared in the case of conflict and the sooner preparations are begun the better
• Efforts are already being made in U.N. and other International organizations
• Gathering support internationally critical to taking some of the burden of U.S. in case of conflict.
- Let everybody do what they do best
• The U.N. is likely our best shot at a watchdog for Iran’s nuclear intentions. The IAEA is pretty much the only inspectors the Iranians will put up with. They do however need to be monitored.
• U.S. and coalition forces need to start operations specifically to counter weapons and support coming into Iraq and Afghanistan from Iran.
- Operations to secure weapons and other support coming across Iranian border
• Specifically U.S. and Iraqi forces
• Iran ally of many parts of current Iraqi government
• Balance needs to reached
• Heavy customs and security operations on Iranian border
• Joint operations preferable
• Perhaps a no man’s zone or security fence
- Watch for hard evidence
• If conflict occurs hard evidence of Iranian foul play could be the key to gathering support for military operations.
• U.N. and Coalition need to focus on their respective areas.
• Critical: hairline trigger. Especially concerning nuclear weapons.

IV. Conclusion