D9HW6 Research Outline

Current Situation in Iran

I. Iranian Government
A. Structure
Faqih/Supreme Leader (Chief of State) (Essentially elected dictator)
- Must be religious but more importantly politically capable
- Elected by popularly elected religious nationalist “Assembly of Experts”
- Appoints Chief of Judiciary and controls directly

Assembly of Experts (Kind of like electoral college)
- Popularly Elected
- Tested for religious learning and commitment to Islamic Republic
- Must be approved by Guardians Council

President (Replaced Prime Minister) (Second Man) (Public spokesman)
- More power than before
- Subject to faqih in all critical state, security, and foreign policy matters

Guardian Council (just under faqih)
- Religious overseeing council
- 12 appointed (supreme leader) members divided equally between clerics and lay scholars.
- Judicial review and veto power
- Conservative religious watchdog
- Judges the qualifications of those who stand for election to legislative bodies

Discretionary Council
- Resolves disputes between Guardian Council, parliament, and executive branch
- Thirty members appointed by supreme leader
- Resolves issues between ruling powers
• Supreme Leader has enormous power
• Remarkably kin to U.S. in that checks-n-balances and democratic. Chief difference non-separation of church and state and great power to one person.
• Very doubtful anything happens without faqih go ahead or he would crack down on it.

Current Leadership
President → Mahamoud Ahmadinejad
- Extremely anti-West and anti-Israel
- Very overconfident
- May not have support of Iranian government

Current Government
Four Professed Goals at Start
1. Social Justice (opinion)(likely no)
2. Economic Self Sufficiency (failed)
3. Good Economy (opinion/not much change/likely worse)
4. Freedom from Influence of Foreign Powers (Likely succeeding but causes other areas to suffer.

Main View From Revolution: Militant
- Political and cultural revolution
- Theocratic state ruled by and for the clerics
- Violence legitimate means to the ultimate goal
- Supreme Leader
• There are liberal minds which would likely support westernized society but repressed by government.
• Possible Dual reality: Public rigid/Private western

II. Iranian Military
* Roughly Four Branches
* Estimated around 550,000- 600,000

1. Pasdaran (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
- Established by the clerics, first loyalty to the clerics
- Transformed zealot revolutionary militias into military force accountable only to clerics

• 125,00 Strongish
• Secures revolutionary regime
• Provides training support to terrorist groups abroad
• Formed in 1978 revolution
• Operates independently of Regular Armed Forces (though lots of joint operations)
- Constitution gives IRGC responsibility of “preserving the Revolution”
- Also serves as enforcers for Islamic codes/moralities
- Iranian SS
- Runs certain businesses and social institutions

Military Capabilities
- Consists of ground, naval, and aviation troops (well rounded)
- Air forces negligible, most new aircraft go to regular Air Force
- Navy mostly small guerilla patrol boats
- Political influence as well
* Essentially Iran’s Proxy Training and support force

2. Regular Army
- First loyalty to country and government
- About 350,000

Composition
1. Four Corps
2. Four Armored Divisions
3. Six Infantry Divisions
4. Two commando brigades
5. One Airborne Brigade
6. Other smaller independent formations:
- Several small armor units
- An Infantry Brigade
- An Airborne Brigade
- Two or Three special forces brigades
- Five artillery brigade/regiments
- Coastal defense units
- Air Defense Groups
- Between four and six army aviation units
- Logistics and supply units

- Different organization in each division
- Some not well equipped
- Decent Number of Tanks
- High Number of combat helicopters

3. Iranian Navy
• Smallest service
• About 20,000 men mostly riflemen and marines

• Five Major Zones
1. Three on Persian Gulf (Main)
2. One on Caspian Sea (tiny)
3. One on Indian Ocean
• Three battalions of marines
• Entirely of Foreign Origin
• Largest Hovercraft fleets in the world (shallow Persian Gulf waters)
• Suffered a great deal after withdrawal of Western suppliers (spare parts and maintenance)
• Mostly supplied by Eastern sources now: Russia, China
• Mostly small, high speed boats

• Poorly equipped and largely out of action
• Large number of sea mines

4. Iranian Air Force
• Also hard hit by military sanctions
• Around 100,000 personnel
• Started with decent air force but heavily degraded
• Most planes and equipment come from Russia and China

Defense Industry
• Small: mostly ground force equipment
• Growing Air production
• Still Largely Reliant on Foreign Market
• New turn toward Russia and China markets for arms (big demand)

• All services negatively effected by withdrawal from western resources specifically Air Force and Navy

• Considered Unorganized

• Attempts to make up for lacking areas with good missile and rocket capabilities

• Basij- Essentially National Guard. Trained by Revolutionary Guards so would probably fight like insurgency. Could be very dangerous in an occupation.

Supreme National Security Council
• Institution established with an aim to watch over the Islamic Revolution and safeguard the IRI’s national interests as well as sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Iranian Constitution lays out three responsibilities of SNSC
1. Determine defense/security policies within the framework of general policies laid down by the faqih.
2. Coordinates all activities related to defense/security.
3. Decides how all resources will be used for facing threats (international and domestic.
• President is Chairman of council and subcommittees
• Faqih makes all final calls

Members of SNSC
1. Heads of Executive, Legislative, and Judiciary
2. Chief of the Supreme Command Council of the Armed Forces
3. Official in charge of the Plan an Budget Organization (head treasurer)
4. Two representatives of faqih
5. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of the Interior, and Minister of Intelligence
6. A minister concerned with the subject and the highest authorities of the Army and the IRGC

• Reports show that military commanders are not idiots and have been known to ignore unsound advice from inexperienced religious/SNSC reps.
• Two chains of command below SNSC
1. Admin
2. Operational





III. Relationship Between Iran And Nearby Countries

Tension with Israel
Reasons
1. Support of Hezbollah
2. Promised Destruction
3. Stated no intention to attack Israel

Recent War Between IDF and Hezbollah
1. Iran emboldened. Seeing tactics work. (Other Arabs see as well)
2. Might be pissed because Hezbollah fired off most rockets

Arab Resentment Toward West
1. Israel
- Basic eviction of Palestinians and emplacement of Israel is very unpopular amongst Arabs
- Continued Western support of Israel seen bitterly by many Arabs
- Blame on U.N. for creation
2. Perceived Social Corruption of West
3. Western Attempts to Control Middle East
- 1953 coup in Iran of prime minister seen with hostility by many Iranians
4. Perceived “anti-Muslim Crusade” by U.S. and allies.

Arabs Toward Iran
• Many Arab Neighbors of Iran do Not See United States as a Threat
Gulf Cooperation Council (Kind of a Middle East NATO)
- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE
- Weary of Iran for several reasons
1. History of Exporting Revolution makes governments nervous
2. Nuclear capability would give increased leverage in regional policy, intimidation
3. Environmental Concerns involving destabilizing nuclear disasters
4. Don’t want a Israel-Iran conflict. Can’t demand stop to Iran when Israel
5. U.S. military action unpopular with nationals. Possibility of lashing out at neighbors
• Israel will not likely allow Iran to gain nukes without fight
• In case of conflict other Arab states likely neutral, at least officially
• Fall of Taliban and Saddam creates power vacume
• Danger of Israeli and Iran conflict

IV. U.N. Attitude Toward Iran

September 25- Iranian President Vows to Ignore Security Council Measures
1. Stated agreement has been reached with IAEA and matter is now closed. (Definitely Not)
2. Stated will not follow resolutions of Security Council claiming it is a pawn of the “Arrogant Powers”
3. West seeking broader sanctions
4. Ahmadinejad makes big attack on U.S. culture.
5. Still wishes to see Israel gone though claims through peaceful means. (yeah right)

September 27- Iranian-IAEA agreement details.
- Essentially this agreement states the plan and order for the IAEA and Iran to resolve all of their outstanding issues in terms of unanswered questions.
- The agreement states that after the process outline within is finished the IAEA will have no further problems with the Iranian nuclear program.
- This essentially means, assuming the Iranians follow through and/or aren’t doing something behind the IAEA’s back, that the U.N. and U.S. lose their credibility in attacking Iran economically, militarily, and politically.
- Report might not hold back U.S. claiming rumors of foul play

• Prior to IAEA found Iran to be holding back and behaving suspiciously
• Fear that other countries will follow example
• Split in support between economic supporter of Iran, primarily Russia and China, which has traditionally paralyzed U.N.
• However, Iran’s cheating of the NPT has created a more unified opinion within the U.N. (treaty)
U.N. Structure
General Assembly
- All nations have 1 vote.
- Overseeing Operations
- Considering non-binding resolutions on international issues
- Elects members of Security Council (not nations)
Security Council
- Maintaining International Peace
- Authorizing Economic and Military Sanctions
- Approving Use of Force to restore peace
- Choices of nations to ensure that every council decision was supported by globe’s strongest nations.

Large Reasons for Ineffectiveness of U.N.
- Different Superpowers supporting opposing sides
- One superpower vetoes parts of intervention and missions become to narrowly defined.
- Many Instances of American or NATO led aggressive plans getting the job done where U.N. doesn’t: Kosovo, Bosnia,
- Going into Iraq without U.N. approval severely discredited
- Many peacekeeping missions are abandoned after minimal losses

More Effective Method of Peacekeeping
1. Superpower goes in and puts down opposition
2. Peacekeepers come in after to keep the peace

• Suggestions for Permanent Peace Keeping Force to make peacekeeping operations better funded and more able to rapidly respond.
• Opponents state wouldn’t work unless backed by superpowers and when superpowers are aligned it’s unnecessary anyway.

IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) (UN Nuclear Watchdog)
- Nations seeking nuclear capabilities must follow certain safeguards and allow IAEA inspections to ensure lack of weapons development.
- Many nations doing it in secret or in spite of.
- Too openhanded.


V. U.S. Attitude Toward Iran

• U.S. policy of not negotiating with those it considers terrorists has not always held true.
• Important to bear in mind that radicals are a minority
• Past attempts to resolve issues indicate that some Iranians at least wish to go into talks with the U.S.
• Current situation in Middle East has emboldened Iran

Intelligence on Iran
• Difficult do to atmosphere in Iran
• Several Methods Known
1. Iranians in other Arab Countries
2. General Intelligence from other countries
3. Intelligence from American Allies in and around region
4. Captured Insurgents or Iranian detainees
5. Iranian Exiles (Chalabis)

Criticism
• Scattered
• U.S. Intel failure in Iraq
• Closely resembles said lack of intel
• Difficulty Understanding Iranian decision making apparatus
• Hard to tell who has a hand in what

• Important is officials making good policy decisions based on limited intelligence



VI. Iranian Influence on Iraq

Iranian Goals in Iraq
- Iran has close ties to many prominent Shia militias in Iraq

5 Theoretical Iranian Goals for Iraq
• Prevent the emergence of an Iraq dominated by Arab-Sunnis that might threaten Iran.
• Promote Iran’s economic and religious interests in Iraq (several Shia holy shrines are located in Iraq). 

• Prevent the emergence of a separate independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq. Such a state might encourage the Kurds in Iran to follow suit. 

• Prevent a decisive US victory. Such an outcome would improve the US image in the Middle East and could encourage Washington to repeat the experience of “regime change” in Iran. Keeping American troops fighting in Iraq reduces the chances of a US attack on Iran. 

• Prevent a full-scale civil war in Iraq. Such a war would threaten the Shia influence inside Iraq, destabilize Iran, and antagonize surrounding Sunni-Arab states.

• Iranian President states chaos in Iraq is bad for Iran as it is their neighbor and Shiite government already in place. States U.S. is looking for a scapegoat.
• Iraq severely uncomfortable with tensions

VII. Iran’s Nuclear Program

• See Iranian-IAEA agreements in U.N. view of Iran section
• Iran has shown a tendency to defy U.N. and IAEA mandates as well as a history of supporting terrorist groups which combines to make everyone nervous about their nuclear intentions
• U.N. waiting on November IAEA report
• Development of nuclear weapons is not strategically very intelligent for Iran right now which makes their behavior all the more troubling
• Iran has defied the NPT treaty which it signed which demands that countries seeking nuclear power must be transparent


VIII. Effect of International Pressure on Iran

• Hard to tell with lack of knowledge of life in Iran

Several Possible Theories
1. Iranian government fully committed to winning international standoff
2. Reemergence of liberal power in response to failure of current government
3. Iran being backed into corner makes more dangerous and prone to rash action

Possible Outcomes

I. Conflict (Could become necessary)
II. Peace (Obviously preferred option)

Effects on American People

I. If peace not much of effect. Focus still on Iraq
II. Many consequences if conflict such as
- Higher deficit
- Suffering of Economy
- Draft
- Increased international anger towards Americans

This will be difficult to read, but the syllabus said post it so here it is. My word version is a lot prettier and easier to look at. This was a useful step because I had to go through my research notes so far and start pulling out the main points. The result is this condensed version of my research notes which are more than twice as long as this. My next steps will be structuring my paper's argument using this information.